Tuesday, September 11, 2012

And we're back!

Sorry for the mishaps at the end of the season last year folks. I guess I was just too frustrated with the team after the Denver "game." I did keep charting, however (with the exception of the 2nd Bills game, which never recorded on my DVR) so I have a full year's database of knowledge once the Bills game gets finished. This of course will be done on NFL's Game Rewind which no offers coaches film which is basically like football porn to statheads like myself. With this new frontier comes a new way Jets Junkie will be analyzing games. No longer will we keep track of play counts (which can be seen for free on Football Outsiders) or a whole lot of personnel packages. We will still be focusing on blitz/protection and man/zone figures which should only be enhanced by coaches film (or All 22 film). The additions will come with the ability to really analyze specific players and especially line play on both sides of the ball. I can already tell you what an outstanding job Austin Howard did on Marion Williams on Sunday based on the film I have seen. Hopefully I should be able to get some posts up Friday and pregame Sunday but no promises since the film only became available over the last few years and yes I do have a day job. Thanks and welcome back to football.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Thursday Gameplan

Here's what should be the Jets gameplan on offense and defense tonight.

Offense: After facing a terrible pass defense and rightly trying to throw the ball the Jets should get back to ground and pound against this average rush defense. Shonn Greene should see 25+ carries for the first time this season and hopefully we'll get to see Joe McKnight in the third down back role with LDT out (possibly even as a slot receiver without Kerley).

Defense: Put 8+ men in the box. It's really that simple. Tebow has not shown the ability to throw the ball accurately, consistently since he's been in the NFL and with Revis and Cromartie facing these below average receivers, it will not get any easier for him. I would also like to see McIntyre and Mauga used more with Maybin+Westerman really being more pass rush threats at this point in their careers.

Prediction: Jets 20, Broncos 3

Mark Sanchez and 3rd Down

There's been a lot of bashing from Jets fans on Mark Sanchez' play from Sunday night and his overall lack of development in his third year. On the whole I disagree with this sentiment and I think much of Aaron Schatz' article today on ESPN Insider proves my theories. Basically he lays out the fact that Sanchez is still young and his stats are basically in line with many of the top QBs of all time at this age, including Brady and Elway. He also makes the point that right Sanchez is an average QB, and those aren't what people are looking for, they either want an elite QB or a terrible QB and Sanchez is neither of those right now but there is still time and room for improvement. Let's hold off until after next year to crucify him. Today I wanted to take a look at a specific part of his game which is his play on 3rd down. I will take a look at who he throws too and how often that results in first downs. I will be looking at these stats pre-Derrick Mason benching and trading and post-Derrick Mason because Kerley has been such a big part of the offense since then but not before. (Will also include 4th down as needed)

With Derrick Mason:
Santonio Holmes: 4/11, 40 yds, INT, 2 first downs (FD Pct.= 18%)
Plaxico Burress: 3/7, 57 yds, 2 TDs, 3 first downs (FD Pct.= 43%)
Dustin Keller: 3/9, 47 yds, 3 first downs (FD Pct.= 33%)
LaDainian Tomlinson: 5/9, 42 yds, 3 first downs (FD Pct.= 33%)
Derrick Mason: 5/5, 63 yds, 4 first downs (FD Pct.= 80%)
Scramble: 4 att, 28 yds, 3 first downs (FD Pct.= 75%)
Matthew Mulligan: 1/2, 2 yds (FD Pct.= 0%)
Overall= 21/43, 251 yds, 2 TDs, INT, 15 first downs, (FD Pct.= 35%)

So clearly in these games his most effective target was Mason but keep in mind that all 5 of these attempts came in the Raiders and Ravens game. He did not even attempt a pass to Mason when facing the Cowboys or Jaguars. Sanchez' completion percentage is a little disappointing overall and his overall lack of effectiveness with Holmes is mind boggling but could also be a result of him being double covered. Now let's take a look at Sanchez' third down effectiveness after Mason got benched following the Raven game.

Without Derrick Mason:
Jeremy Kerley: 8/11, 73 yds, 6 first downs (FD Pct.= 55%)
Dustin Keller: 5/9, 87 yds, 4 first downs (FD Pct.= 44%)
Plaxico Burress: 3/8, 15 yds, 2 TDs, 3 first downs (FD Pct.= 38%)
LaDainian Tomlinson: 5/6, 73 yds, 1 first down (FD Pct.= 17%)
Santonio Holmes: 2/4, 59 yds, 2 TDs, 2 first downs (FD Pct.= 50%)
Scramble: 2 att, 7 yds, 1 first down (FD Pct.= 50%)
John Conner: 0/1, 0 yds (FD Pct.= 0%)
Overall= 25/39, 307 yds, 4 TDs, 16 first downs (FD Pct.= 41%)

We can see Sanchez focusing in on Kerley on third downs in the past 5 games and he is converting a good amount of his attempts into first downs. We have seen a higher completion percentage from Sanchez and higher percentage of his throws have resulted in first downs. Kerley is his first true slot receiver and with him Sanchez has shown improvement. Now all the Jets need is a true deep threat to stretch the field a little bit since Burress isn't beating anyone down the field anymore.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Tom Brady

Turnovers, as we learned again on Sunday, are what makes the difference in the NFL, especially if you are playing against Tom Brady. In the second half he absolutely shredded our defense with his no huddle and our secondary was not able to properly make their calls in order to stop him. I want to take a look at how Tom Brady fared when facing different numbers of rushers just like we did in the last game. All stats were cut off after the Jets were stopped at the Patriots 38, which effectively ended the game with 6 minutes to go.

2-man rush: 1/1, 23 yds
3-man rush: 2/3, 16 yds, TD
4-man rush: 13/20, 141 yds
5-man rush: 6/8, 106 yds, 2 TDs
6-man rush: 1/1, 9 yds
7-man rush: 1/2, 12 yds

Surprisingly, Brady fared better against the 5 man rush than the 4 man rush which also happened the last time these two times these teams faced each other. We all know it throws off Brady's timing when he is pressured but the Jets were unable to do that even when sending 5, which also left one less man in coverage. Now let's take a look at how Brady fared against man and zone coverage.

Man: 20/30, 265 yds, 2 TDs
Zone: 5/7, 52 yds, TD

Obviously the Jets play a lot more man coverage than zone and when you have Revis and Cromartie you should. Brady completed a higher percentage of his passes against zone which is to be expected, Brady had to complete his last 8 passes against man coverage to get up to 66%.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Red Zone

Run= 7 att, 12 yds, 2 TDs
Pass= 2/3, 27 yds, TD, INT
Efficiency= 4 trips, 3 TDs

Mixed results for the offense in the Red Zone this week. On one hand they were able to score 3 TDs in 4 trips, on the other they had a turnover and weren't able to rush the ball effectively.

Run= 2 att, 6 yds
Pass= 1/3, 3 yds
Efficiency= 2 trips, 1 FG

What a remarkable day for the defense. They were able to halt the Bills offense almost entirely, and once the got in the Red Zone it didn't get better for Fitzpatrick. First they stopped them on the 6 and held them to a FG and then when they went for on 4th and inches the Jets line and linebackers totally blew up their offense and stopped Jackson a yard deep in the backfield.

Personnel Package Efficiency

Sorry for the absence folks, been a hectic few weeks. Let's take a look at Personnel Package Efficiency from Sunday. All stats were cut off after John Conner's 1 yard score to make it 27-3.

1 RB 1 FB 2 WR 1 TE (24 plays)= 9/10, 114 yds, TD, INT, sack, 13 att, 39 yds
1 RB 3 WR 1 TE (15 plays)= 8/13, 88 yds, fumble lost, 1 att, 5 yds
1 RB 1 FB 1 WR 2 TE (9 plays)= 2/2, 24 yds, 7 att, 21 yds
1 RB 2 WR 2 TE (8 plays)= 1/2, 5 yds, 6 att, 28 yds
2 RB 0 WR 3 TE (3 plays)= 3 att, 9 yds, 2 TDs
2 RB 3 WR 0 TE (1 play)= 0/1, 0 yds

Unsurprisingly the Jets used John Conner more often than any other game this season. They used him because they were effective running the ball against the Bills for the entirety of the game even though they only averaged 3 yards per carry when he was there. Sanchez was especially effective when in their most common personnel package, completing 90% of his passes and over 12 yards per completion.

3 DL 3 LB 5 DB (12 plays)= 3/5, 19 yds, 6 att, 33 yds, fumble recovery
1 DL 3 LB 7 DB (12 plays)= 3/9, 81 yds, INT, 3 att, 12 yds
3 DL 2 LB 6 DB (10 plays)= 3/5, 39 yds, 5 att, 12 yds
3 DL 4 LB 4 DB (5 plays)= 0/1, 0 yds, 4 att, 3 yds
1 DL 4 LB 6 DB (2 plays)= 1/2, 3 yds, INT
2 DL 3 LB 6 DB (1 play)= 1/1, 3 yds
3 DL 5 LB 3 DB (1 play)= 1 att, 2 yds

The Jets smartly only used their base personnel 12% of the time. It was smart considering the Bills love spreading you out and throwing the ball and they had to do this even more than usual since they were down for most of the game. Fitzpatrick had a miserable trying to complete passes with Revis, Cromartie, and Wilson blanketing their man and using the rest to clog the middle.

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Mark Sanchez

Let's take a look at Mark Sanchez's numbers from Monday.

Man= 7/14, 79 yds
Zone= 7/9, 122 yds, TD

Overall his numbers look better than he actually played. The first 4 drives were absolutely abysmal as they were unable to get a first down. Again he showed the ability to make dump off passes against the zone and against the Dolphins the Jets receivers were able to break some tackles and create bigger plays. To be honest I was hoping to see more from Sanchez against this dismal Dolphins pass defense.